We're not here to kill the dream.
We're here to tell you what it actually requires.
Most first-time restaurant operators don't fail because they had a bad idea. They fail because no one sat them down early enough and showed them the shape of what they were about to take on — the rent, the ramp, the cash that has to be in the bank on day one.
We give that shape. Fast, honest, encouraging when the math allows. Tough love only when it has to be. Five minutes, no login, no payment, before you spend months chasing a concept the numbers were never going to bless.
Encouraging, not cynical
The goal is to be the smart operator friend who tells you the truth and still believes the concept can work. Tough love only when the math demands it.
Realistic, not theoretical
Every assumption is grounded in standard restaurant finance benchmarks. Every number is visible, editable, and explainable in plain English.
Made for first-time operators
If you've never written a pro forma, you shouldn't have to read one. We meet you at the kitchen table, not in an MBA classroom.
What we believe
- A great concept can still be a bad investment if the lease is wrong. The lease, more than any other single decision, is what most first-time operators get wrong.
- Most aspiring owners don't need a 60-page consulting deliverable. They need an honest answer to one question first: is this even remotely worth exploring?
- Numbers should be visible and editable. Hidden math hides bad assumptions. We make the assumptions live where you can challenge them.
- Encouragement and rigor are not opposites. The most useful feedback you can get is what would have to be true for the dream to work.
What this is not
Restaurant Reality Check is not financial, legal, accounting, tax, or investment advice. It's an educational tool. Real-world results vary heavily by operator, market, lease, and execution.
Use it as the first conversation, not the last one. Before you sign a lease or write a check, talk to a CPA, a hospitality attorney, and at least one operator who has actually opened a place in your market.
Kale Bittner
Founder
I spent four years as COO and General Manager of Iron Triangle Brewing Company, scaling it from launch to 3,000+ barrels with distribution across Southern California. I built every forecasting and operational model from scratch in Excel — the way most first-time F&B operators still have to. It took forever. I would have killed for a tool that did the first 80% of that work for me.
After Iron Triangle, I spent four years at Amazon Music / Wondery building LTV models, subscription forecasts, and content-investment frameworks for a multi-million-subscriber business. Same modeling discipline, much better tools. That's the toolkit behind this engine.
Restaurant Reality Check is the tool I wish I'd had in 2015. If you're using it and find a number it gets wrong for your concept, email kalebittner@gmail.com.
Ready when you are.
Five minutes. No login. No payment. An honest first read on whether your idea is worth chasing further.